Median house price
$1.19M
-4.8% change
NSW · Port Stephens Council
Fern Bay, 2295
Est. population · Jun 2025
4,509
Growth (1 yr)
+1.6%
Growth (5 yr)
+13.2%
Median age
43
Median income
$1,435/wk
Employment rate
48.4%
Median house price · October to December 2025
$1,190,000
Languages at home
4.8%non-English
Most common: Cantonese, Afrikaans, German
2021 Census · usual residence
Desirability score
- Coastal
- Excellent transport
- Green suburb
- Education hub
- High desirability
Suburb profile
Fern Bay is a coastal mid-sized suburb a long way from Sydney, where beach life and a quieter rhythm set the tone. Day-to-day life leans on nearby towns and local hubs rather than the metro area. Long-term locals and family households define much of the community, with a strong presence of young families throughout.
Parks and open space are a real strength relative to many coastal suburbs, easy for walks, sport and weekend downtime. Buses are a genuine asset, linking residents to work, study and nearby neighbourhoods. Property sits in a premium price band and is harder to enter for many buyers.
Reported crime has been rising recently. Light infill development is updating a few streets while the wider area stays largely unchanged.
Versus similar coastal suburbs, the suburb reads below average on desirability, chiefly because schools and education trail behind. Limited access to some essential local services also trimmed the result.
At a glance
Fern Bay snapshot
A quick read of housing, growth, livability, and risk
Median rent
$750/wk
Population (ERP)
4,509
+1.6% annual growth
Dwelling vacancy
4.6%
Census unoccupied dwellings
Livability profile
Desirability pillars vs the peer median (50th percentile)
How it compares
Relative standing using percentiles, ranks, and national deciles
Desirability
#27
among Coastal & beach · Emerging
Safety
35th
percentile in state (higher = safer)
Pop. growth
80th
percentile in NSW
Advantage (IRSAD)
6/10
national SEIFA decile
School ICSEA
48th
percentile among schools with ICSEA
Population growth
Recent ERP change over 1 and 5 years
Housing mix
Dwelling types from the 2021 Census
Risks & flags
Quick scan — open a section below for full context
Living here
Desirability
Ranks & confidence
- Desirability score
- 37.0/100 — Below average
- National rank
- 4293rd in Australia
- State rank
- 1351st in NSW
- Peer rank
- #27 among Coastal & beach · Emerging suburbs
- Cohort rank
- #134 among Coastal & beach suburbs
- Data confidence
- 100%
Data sources & freshness
- Suburb Guide desirability index — Suburb Guide (derived) · current · Updated
Housing
- Houses (January to March 2026)
- $780
- Rental bonds lodged (January to March 2026)
- 44
- Median house price (October to December 2025)
- $1,190,000
- Median price change
- -4.8%
Median weekly rent from NSW DCJ rent tables. Figures can be unreliable where few bonds were lodged in the quarter.
Contributes to desirability score · Housing (15%) · Future Growth (7%)
Median price, rental yield and vacancy Recent price momentum
Data sources & freshness
- DCJ rent and sales tables — NSW Department of Communities and Justice · January to March 2026; October to December 2025 · Updated · Quarterly releases
Population
Estimated resident population
4,509(June 2025)
+1.6% annual · +13.2% over 5 years · 80th percentile in NSW
Growth figures & methodology
- Annual growth
- +1.6%
- 5-year growth
- +13.2%
- Change in 1 year
- +70
- Change in 5 years
- +524
- Growth rank in NSW
- 80th percentile
ABS Estimated Resident Population allocated to this suburb from SA2-level data. Not an official ABS suburb count.
Methodology
Figures are allocated from ABS Estimated Resident Population at Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2), using 2021 Census share within overlapping SA2 regions. Where Census data is unavailable, area overlap is used instead.
The dashed chart line is a simple growth-trend estimate to June 2030 (~5,250), extrapolated at +3.2% average annual growth since 2011. It is illustrative only — not an official ABS forecast.
2021 Census figures
2021 Census
- Population
- 4,046
- Median age
- 43
- Median household income / week
- $1,435
- Dwelling vacancy
- 4.6%
- Unoccupied private dwellings
- 79 of 1,725
- Median monthly mortgage
- $2,299
- Employment rate
- 48.4%
- Dwelling mix (houses / semi / flats)
- 1,607 / 26 / 4
Contributes to desirability score · Community (5%)
Employment, household income and age diversity (2021 Census)
Data sources & freshness
- 2021 Census — General Community Profile — Australian Bureau of Statistics · Updated
The 2026 Census runs in August 2026; suburb-level updates are expected from mid-2027.
- Estimated Resident Population — Australian Bureau of Statistics · 2025 · Updated · SA2 ERP allocated to suburb boundaries
Community & culture
No 2021 Census cultural diversity data for this suburb yet.
Data sources & freshness
- 2021 Census — General Community Profile — Australian Bureau of Statistics · Updated
The 2026 Census runs in August 2026; suburb-level updates are expected from mid-2027.
Crime & safety
Reported offences increased compared with the previous period.
Offence counts & rates
- Total offences (Jan 2025 to Dec 2025)
- 249
- Against the person
- 75
- Against property
- 112
- Rate per 1,000 residents
- 55.2
- Person-crime prevalence
- About 1 in 54 residents
- State safety percentile
- 35.1th (lower crime is better)
- Increase (daily rate)
- +19.5%
Most common offence types
- Breach Apprehended Violence Order37
- Domestic Violence Related Assault38
- Intimidation, Stalking And Harassment43
- Malicious Damage To Property44
- Steal From Motor Vehicle46
Contributes to desirability score · Safety (18%)
Crime rate and year-on-year trend
Data sources & freshness
- BOCSAR postcode crime statistics — NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research · Jan 2024 to Dec 2024 → Jan 2025 to Dec 2025; Jan 2025 to Dec 2025 · Updated · Rolling 12-month windows
Family & Lifestyle
Schools & preschools
- Schools within 2 km
- 1
- Median school ICSEA
- 1,002
- Median ICSEA percentile
- 48th
School list
- Fern Bay Public SchoolPrimary · Government · ICSEA 1002 · 48th percentile · LBOTE 6% · 182 students · Top SEA quarter 13% · 1.9 km awayView on My School →
Contributes to desirability score · Education (15%)
School and preschool counts, median school ICSEA
Data sources & freshness
- ACARA school locations — Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority · 2025 · Updated · Annual release
- School ICSEA scores — Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority · 2025 · Updated · Annual release
Childcare
1 childcare service from OpenStreetMap
- childcarechildcare
Contributes to desirability score · Education (15%)
Childcare centre count
Data sources & freshness
- Childcare services — OpenStreetMap · current · Updated
Public transport
33 public transport stops in this suburb
- 1073 Nelson Bay Rd
- Nelson Bay Rd At Taylor Rd
- Nelson Bay Rd Before Vardon Rd
- Nelson Bay Rd Opp 1073
- Nelson Bay Rd Opp Taylor Rd
Contributes to desirability score · Accessibility (15%)
Public transport stop coverage
Data sources & freshness
- Timetables Complete GTFS stops (© Transport for NSW, CC BY 4.0) — Transport for NSW — Open Data Hub · current · Updated · Nightly GTFS feed
Amenities
53 nearby amenities within ~1.5 km
4 playgrounds · 2 swimming pools
Local character & venue list
Local character
- A car helps for daily errands
- Great for outdoor family life — 4 parks mapped in suburb, 4 playgrounds nearby
- Well connected by public transport — 33 public transport stops
- Walkability proxy
- 30/100
- Cafés per 1,000 residents
- 0
- Food & drink per 1,000 residents
- 0
- Parks per 1,000 residents
- 0.99
Community(1)
- Childcare
Health & services(1)
- Seaside Medical CentreMedical clinic
51 Dune Drive, Fern Bay
Sport & outdoors(12)
- Banksia ParkPark
- Park (2)
- Waratah ParkPark
- Paperbark Picnic AreaPicnic area
Paperbark Court, Fern Bay
- Playground (4)
- Sports field
- Swimming pool (2)
Transport(5)
5 bus stops
Other(23)
- Ganyamalbaa Campsite 1 (Blue area)Camp Pitch
- Ganyamalbaa Campsite 10 (Green area)Camp Pitch
- Ganyamalbaa Campsite 11 (Green area)Camp Pitch
- Ganyamalbaa Campsite 12 (Green area)Camp Pitch
- Ganyamalbaa Campsite 13 (Orange area)Camp Pitch
- Ganyamalbaa Campsite 14 (Orange area)Camp Pitch
- Ganyamalbaa Campsite 15 (Orange area)Camp Pitch
- Ganyamalbaa Campsite 16 (Orange area)Camp Pitch
- Ganyamalbaa Campsite 17 (Orange area)Camp Pitch
- Ganyamalbaa Campsite 18 (Orange area)Camp Pitch
- Ganyamalbaa Campsite 2 (Blue area)Camp Pitch
- Ganyamalbaa Campsite 3 (Blue area)Camp Pitch
- Ganyamalbaa Campsite 4 (Blue area)Camp Pitch
- Ganyamalbaa Campsite 5 (Blue area)Camp Pitch
- Ganyamalbaa Campsite 6 (Green area)Camp Pitch
- Ganyamalbaa Campsite 7 (Green area)Camp Pitch
- Ganyamalbaa Campsite 8 (Green area)Camp Pitch
- Ganyamalbaa Campsite 9 (Green area)Camp Pitch
- Ganyamalbaa Beach Camping AreaCamp Site
- Parking
Fern Bay Access Trail
- Parking (4)
- Picnic Table (4)
- Shelter (6)
Names and addresses from OpenStreetMap. Unnamed venues show as their type (e.g. Cafe). Transport stops are summarised by type rather than listed individually.
Contributes to desirability score · Lifestyle (15%)
Food, shopping, recreation and sport (OpenStreetMap)
Data sources & freshness
- Local amenity insights — Suburb Guide (derived) · current · Updated
- OpenStreetMap amenities — OpenStreetMap contributors · current · Updated
Parks & reserves
2 parks and public open space in this suburb
- Banksia ParkPark
- Waratah ParkPark
Data sources & freshness
- Parks & reserves — State government + ABS LGA boundaries · current · Updated
Green cover
- Parks & woodland (OSM)
- 8
- Parks (OSM)
- 4
OpenStreetMap parks and natural woodland features mapped within the suburb boundary.
Contributes to desirability score · Environment (10%)
Parks and green cover (OpenStreetMap)
Data sources & freshness
- OpenStreetMap green cover — OpenStreetMap contributors · current · Updated
Health access
- Hospitals & GP clinics in suburb
- 1
- Nearest hospital
- Hunter New England Mental Health Service (9.4 km)
- Nearest hospital type
- Hospital
- Nearest hospital emergency
- Emergency department
- Emergency department in suburb
- Not in suburb
- Seaside Medical CentreDune DriveDoctor
Contributes to desirability score · Accessibility (15%)
Hospitals and GP clinics
Data sources & freshness
- Hospitals & clinics — OpenStreetMap + state health datasets · current · Updated
NDIS participation
- NDIS participants (31 March 2026)
- 125
- Participants per 1,000 residents
- 27.7
Active NDIS participants allocated from NDIA Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2, ASGS 2016) counts to this suburb boundary. Not an official suburb-level NDIS figure · as at 31 March 2026.
For NDIS spend and service-demand exploration by SA2 or postcode, see the Care Sector Demand Map.
Data sources & freshness
- NDIS participants by SA2 — National Disability Insurance Agency · 2026-Q1 · Updated · Quarterly SA2 counts allocated to suburb boundaries
Weather
Typical conditions by season for suburbs in the same ~44 km climate area. Rainfall totals are summed from monthly WorldClim layers; rainy-day counts are approximate.
Summer (Dec–Feb)
- Usual max / min
- 27° / 18°
- Rainfall
- 295 mm · ~37 rainy days
Autumn (Mar–May)
- Usual max / min
- 23° / 14°
- Rainfall
- 366 mm · ~46 rainy days
Winter (Jun–Aug)
- Usual max / min
- 18° / 8°
- Rainfall
- 272 mm · ~34 rainy days
Spring (Sep–Nov)
- Usual max / min
- 23° / 13°
- Rainfall
- 230 mm · ~29 rainy days
Contributes to desirability score · Lifestyle (15%)
Temperature and humidity comfort
Data sources & freshness
- Seasonal climate normals — WorldClim 2.1 · Updated
Future & Planning
Planning & development
Development applications from NSW Planning Portal.
2026· 16 proposals
June 2026
- Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Awnings, blinds and canopies7 FULLERTON STREET FERN BAY 2295Determined
May 2026
- Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Balcony, deck, patio, terrace or verandah27 IRONBARK DRIVE FERN BAY 2295Determined
- Erection of a new structure; Sewage reticulation system1146 NELSON BAY ROAD FERN BAY 2295Determined
- Erection of a new structure; Swimming pool10 BRAID ROAD FERN BAY 2295Determined
- Subdivision18 TUCKEROO CIRCUIT FERN BAY 2295Determined
- Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Erection of a new structure; Caravan park1126 NELSON BAY ROAD FERN BAY 2295Additional Information Requested
April 2026
- Erection of a new structure; Swimming pool19 VARDON ROAD FERN BAY 2295Determined
- Subdivision93 NORFOLK STREET FERN BAY 2295Determined
March 2026
- Erection of a new structure; Swimming pool22 PLOVER STREET FERN BAY 2295Determined
- Subdivision25 NORFOLK STREET FERN BAY 2295Determined
- Erection of a new structure; Swimming pool26 URALLA STREET FERN BAY 2295Withdrawn
February 2026
- Dwelling house; Erection of a new structure10 RANKIN ROAD FERN BAY 2295Determined
- Erection of a new structure; Swimming pool12 OIMARA STREET FERN BAY 2295Determined
January 2026
- Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Carport14 TOOROONG ROAD FERN BAY 2295Determined
- Erection of a new structure; Balcony, deck, patio, terrace or verandah14 OIMARA STREET FERN BAY 2295Determined
- Erection of a new structure; Portable swimming pools and spas and child-resistant barriers15 BOTANICA AVENUE FERN BAY 2295Determined
2025· 15 proposals
December 2025
- Dwelling house; Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure1033 NELSON BAY ROAD FERN BAY 2295Determined
- Erection of a new structure; Swimming pool31 FOXTAIL STREET FERN BAY 2295Determined
November 2025
- Demolition10 RANKIN ROAD FERN BAY 2295Under Assessment
October 2025
- Shed; Erection of a new structure; Carport20 PLOVER STREET FERN BAY 2295Determined
- Erection of a new structure; Garage, carport or carparking space4 ROSEMARY STREET FERN BAY 2295Determined
September 2025
- Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Balcony, deck, patio, terrace or verandah (screened enclosures)3A DUNE DRIVE FERN BAY 2295Determined
August 2025
- Dwelling house; Erection of a new structure; Dual occupancy (detached)51 DUNE DRIVE FERN BAY 2295Determined
- Erection of a new structure; Swimming pool4 ROSEMARY STREET FERN BAY 2295Determined
June 2025
- Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Swimming pool38 POPPLEWELL ROAD FERN BAY 2295Determined
May 2025
- Erection of a new structure; Swimming pool20 FOXTAIL STREET FERN BAY 2295Determined
- Erection of a new structure; Swimming pool3 WATER STREET FERN BAY 2295Determined
April 2025
- Erection of a new structure; Swimming pool24 PIPER STREET FERN BAY 2295Determined
February 2025
- Erection of a new structure; Swimming pool43 PAPERBARK COURT FERN BAY 2295Determined
- Shed; Erection of a new structure19 BRAID ROAD FERN BAY 2295Determined
- Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Minor building alterations (internal); Minor building alterations (external); Residential Accommodation3 FOXTAIL STREET FERN BAY 2295Determined
2024· 9 proposals
December 2024
- Dual occupancy; Subdivision; Change of use of land or a building or the classification of a building under the Building Code of Australia; Dual occupancy (attached)7 SANDCASTLE STREET FERN BAY 2295Determined
November 2024
- Secondary dwelling; Erection of a new structure39 SEASIDE BOULEVARD FERN BAY 2295Determined
- Erection of a new structure; Swimming pool1 OIMARA STREET FERN BAY 2295Determined
October 2024
- Shed; Dwelling house; Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Erection of a new structure15 VARDON ROAD FERN BAY 2295Determined
- Erection of a new structure; Balcony, deck, patio, terrace or verandah18 DIURIS STREET FERN BAY 2295Determined
- Erection of a new structure; Swimming pool13 WINDSURF CIRCUIT FERN BAY 2295Determined
August 2024
- Erection of a new structure; Swimming pool137 NORFOLK STREET FERN BAY 2295Determined
July 2024
- Erection of a new structure; Swimming pool7A SEASIDE BOULEVARD FERN BAY 2295Determined
- Erection of a new structure; Swimming pool85 NORFOLK STREET FERN BAY 2295Determined
Contributes to desirability score · Future Growth (7%)
Development and planning activity
Data sources & freshness
- Online DA development application register — NSW Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure · 2026 · Updated · Daily feed (from Oct 2018)
Hazards
- Bushfire planning zone
- Overlay applies
Bushfire overlay checked at suburb centroid via NSW bush fire prone land mapping.
Contributes to desirability score · Safety (18%)
Bushfire hazard overlays
Data sources & freshness
- Hazard planning overlays — State government hazard layers · current · Updated
Politics & representation
- Federal electorate
- Paterson
- Member of Parliament
- Meryl SWANSON (Australian Labor Party)
- Results from
- 2025 federal election
- Electorate enrolment (2025)
- 127,926
- Turnout (2025)
- 92.8%
- Swing since 2022 (2025)
- +4.3 pp toward Labor
Two-party preferred (2025)
Coalition 43.1%Labor 56.9%
Estimated suburb voting profile
Estimated from 8 nearby ordinary polling places (up to 14.3 km away).
Coalition 43.8%Labor 56.2%
0.7 percentage points more Coalition-leaning than the electorate
Estimated swing since 2022: +3.2 pp toward Labor
Nearest polling places
- Fern BayLabor 56.3% · Coalition 43.7% TPP (2025)1.8 km away
- WilliamtownLabor 49.6% · Coalition 50.4% TPP (2025)6.8 km away
- Salt AshLabor 45.7% · Coalition 54.3% TPP (2025)12.0 km away
- Raymond Terrace EastLabor 64.0% · Coalition 36.0% TPP (2025)12.1 km away
- Raymond Terrace CentralLabor 60.2% · Coalition 39.8% TPP (2025)12.6 km away
Federal electorate from AEC federal division boundaries (2025 redistribution). Division-level results are official AEC figures from the latest general election, with by-election updates where applicable. The estimated suburb profile blends up to eight nearest ordinary polling booths in the same electorate using inverse-distance weighting from the suburb centroid — an approximation, not official AEC data. Nearest polling places are shown for reference.
Data sources & freshness
- Federal election results — Australian Electoral Commission · Updated · 2025 election with by-election overlays
Socio-economic
- IRSAD decile (2021)
- 6/10
- IRSD decile (2021)
- 5/10
ABS Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA), 2021 release — the latest available, derived from the 2021 Census. Deciles rank suburbs nationally from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).
What do IRSAD and IRSD measure?
IRSAD — Index of Relative Socio-economic Advantage and Disadvantage. Combines indicators of advantage (e.g. high income, skilled occupations) and disadvantage. Higher decile = more advantaged relative to other Australian areas.
IRSD — Index of Relative Socio-economic Disadvantage. Focuses on disadvantage only (e.g. low income, unemployment, limited education). Higher decile = less disadvantage nationally.
A new SEIFA edition typically follows each census; the ABS has not announced a release date beyond 2021.
Contributes to desirability score · Community (5%)
Socio-economic advantage (IRSAD decile)
Data sources & freshness
- SEIFA 2021 (IRSAD / IRSD) — Australian Bureau of Statistics · Updated
Compare with
Similar suburbs to weigh up side by side — scores, safety, schools, and lifestyle.
More in Port Stephens Council
Other suburbs in the same local government area.
Comparable suburbs
Similar population and socio-economic profile in other parts of New South Wales.