Median house price
$1.19M
+16% change
NSW · Port Stephens Council
Shoal Bay, 2315
Est. population · Jun 2025
1,836
Growth (1 yr)
+0.3%
Growth (5 yr)
+1.0%
Median age
59
Median income
$1,007/wk
Employment rate
37.2%
Median house price · October to December 2025
$1,190,000
Languages at home
6.1%non-English
Most common: Nepali, German, Malayalam
2021 Census · usual residence
Desirability score
- Coastal
- Excellent transport
- Green suburb
- Education hub
- Café precinct
Suburb profile
Life in Shoal Bay revolves around the coast at a genuine remove from Sydney. Regional towns and local services do more of the everyday heavy lifting than the city. An older demographic makes it especially popular with retirees.
Green space punches above what many coastal suburbs offer, with parks and playgrounds woven through the suburb. Reasonably walkable — many errands reachable on foot or by bus, with buses linking the suburb to surrounding areas. Property sits in a premium price band and is harder to enter for many buyers.
Occasional new builds add variety while most of the suburb keeps its established look.
Against similar coastal suburbs, the suburb sits below average overall, mainly because community and employment, plus schools and education lag behind, despite relative strength in growth momentum.
At a glance
Shoal Bay snapshot
A quick read of housing, growth, livability, and risk
Median rent
$650/wk
Houses $740 · Units $560
Population (ERP)
1,836
+0.3% annual growth
Dwelling vacancy
45.6%
Census unoccupied dwellings
Livability profile
Desirability pillars vs the peer median (50th percentile)
How it compares
Relative standing using percentiles, ranks, and national deciles
Desirability
#60
among Coastal & beach · Mature
Safety
52nd
percentile in state (higher = safer)
Pop. growth
45th
percentile in NSW
Advantage (IRSAD)
3/10
national SEIFA decile
School ICSEA
30th
percentile among schools with ICSEA
Population growth
Recent ERP change over 1 and 5 years
Housing mix
Dwelling types from the 2021 Census
Risks & flags
Quick scan — open a section below for full context
Living here
Desirability
Ranks & confidence
- Desirability score
- 38.5/100 — Below average
- National rank
- 4040th in Australia
- State rank
- 1249th in NSW
- Peer rank
- #60 among Coastal & beach · Mature suburbs
- Cohort rank
- #126 among Coastal & beach suburbs
- Data confidence
- 89%
Data sources & freshness
- Suburb Guide desirability index — Suburb Guide (derived) · current · Updated
Housing
- Flats / units (January to March 2026)
- $560
- Houses (January to March 2026)
- $740
- All types (January to March 2026)
- $650
- Rental bonds lodged (January to March 2026)
- 126
- Median house price (October to December 2025)
- $1,190,000
- Median price change
- +16.1%
Median weekly rent from NSW DCJ rent tables. Figures can be unreliable where few bonds were lodged in the quarter.
Contributes to desirability score · Housing (15%) · Future Growth (7%)
Median price, rental yield and vacancy Recent price momentum
Data sources & freshness
- DCJ rent and sales tables — NSW Department of Communities and Justice · January to March 2026; October to December 2025 · Updated · Quarterly releases
Population
Estimated resident population
1,836(June 2025)
+0.3% annual · +1.0% over 5 years · 45th percentile in NSW
Growth figures & methodology
- Annual growth
- +0.3%
- 5-year growth
- +1.0%
- Change in 1 year
- +6
- Change in 5 years
- +18
- Growth rank in NSW
- 45th percentile
ABS Estimated Resident Population allocated to this suburb from SA2-level data. Not an official ABS suburb count.
Methodology
Figures are allocated from ABS Estimated Resident Population at Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2), using 2021 Census share within overlapping SA2 regions. Where Census data is unavailable, area overlap is used instead.
The dashed chart line is a simple growth-trend estimate to June 2030 (~1,900), extrapolated at +0.6% average annual growth since 2011. It is illustrative only — not an official ABS forecast.
2021 Census figures
2021 Census
- Population
- 1,815
- Median age
- 59
- Median household income / week
- $1,007
- Dwelling vacancy
- 45.6%
- Unoccupied private dwellings
- 686 of 1,506
- Median monthly mortgage
- $1,700
- Employment rate
- 37.2%
- Dwelling mix (houses / semi / flats)
- 431 / 271 / 113
Contributes to desirability score · Community (5%)
Employment, household income and age diversity (2021 Census)
Data sources & freshness
- 2021 Census — General Community Profile — Australian Bureau of Statistics · Updated
The 2026 Census runs in August 2026; suburb-level updates are expected from mid-2027.
- Estimated Resident Population — Australian Bureau of Statistics · 2025 · Updated · SA2 ERP allocated to suburb boundaries
Community & culture
No 2021 Census cultural diversity data for this suburb yet.
Data sources & freshness
- 2021 Census — General Community Profile — Australian Bureau of Statistics · Updated
The 2026 Census runs in August 2026; suburb-level updates are expected from mid-2027.
Crime & safety
Reported offences increased compared with the previous period.
Offence counts & rates
- Total offences (Jan 2025 to Dec 2025)
- 129
- Against the person
- 33
- Against property
- 40
- Rate per 1,000 residents
- 70.3
- Person-crime prevalence
- About 1 in 55 residents
- State safety percentile
- 52.3th (lower crime is better)
- Increase (daily rate)
- +4.3%
Most common offence types
- Breach Bail Conditions95
- Domestic Violence Related Assault88
- Intimidation, Stalking And Harassment86
- Malicious Damage To Property99
- Other Offences185
Contributes to desirability score · Safety (18%)
Crime rate and year-on-year trend
Data sources & freshness
- BOCSAR postcode crime statistics — NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research · Jan 2024 to Dec 2024 → Jan 2025 to Dec 2025; Jan 2025 to Dec 2025 · Updated · Rolling 12-month windows
Family & Lifestyle
Schools & preschools
- Schools within 2 km
- 1
- Median school ICSEA
- 962
- Median ICSEA percentile
- 30th
School list
- Shoal Bay Public SchoolPrimary · Government · ICSEA 962 · 30th percentile · LBOTE 13% · 237 students · Top SEA quarter 7% · 0.4 km awayView on My School →
Contributes to desirability score · Education (15%)
School and preschool counts, median school ICSEA
Data sources & freshness
- ACARA school locations — Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority · 2025 · Updated · Annual release
- School ICSEA scores — Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority · 2025 · Updated · Annual release
Public transport
36 public transport stops in this suburb
- 58 Government Rd
- Government Rd At Peterie St
- Government Rd Before Siddons St
- Government Rd Opp Peterie St
- Shoal Bay Public School, Fingal St
Contributes to desirability score · Accessibility (15%)
Public transport stop coverage
Data sources & freshness
- Timetables Complete GTFS stops (© Transport for NSW, CC BY 4.0) — Transport for NSW — Open Data Hub · current · Updated · Nightly GTFS feed
Amenities
61 nearby amenities within ~1.5 km
2 restaurants · 1 supermarkets · 1 fast food · 1 playgrounds · 1 swimming pools
Local character & venue list
Local character
- Reasonably walkable — many errands reachable on foot or by bus
- Great for outdoor family life — 6 parks mapped in suburb, 1 playgrounds nearby
- Well connected by public transport — 36 public transport stops
- Walkability proxy
- 61/100
- Cafés per 1,000 residents
- 0
- Food & drink per 1,000 residents
- 1.65
- Parks per 1,000 residents
- 3.31
Food & drink(3)
- Aussie Bob's Fish & ChipsFast food
2A Tomaree Road
- ModTHAIRestaurant
- Shoal Bay Country ClubRestaurant
Shopping(1)
- IGASupermarket
Community(1)
- Shoal Bay Public SchoolSchool
Shoal Bay
Sport & outdoors(10)
- Anzac ParkPark
- Garden PlacePark
- Park (3)
- Passchendaele ParkPark
- Picnic area
- Playground
- Sports field
- Swimming pool
Entertainment(2)
- Viewpoint
- Zenith BeachViewpoint
Transport(20)
20 bus stops
Other(15)
- Bbq
- 01Bench
- 02Bench
- 03Bench
- Information
- Newsagent
- Boat Trailer Parking OnlyParking
- Parking (9)
- 01Picnic Table
- 02Picnic Table
- Picnic Table (2)
- Public toilets
- Box BeachShelter
- Tomaree HeadShelter
- Slipway
Names and addresses from OpenStreetMap. Unnamed venues show as their type (e.g. Cafe). Transport stops are summarised by type rather than listed individually.
Contributes to desirability score · Lifestyle (15%)
Food, shopping, recreation and sport (OpenStreetMap)
Data sources & freshness
- Local amenity insights — Suburb Guide (derived) · current · Updated
- OpenStreetMap amenities — OpenStreetMap contributors · current · Updated
Parks & reserves
3 parks and public open space in this suburb
- Anzac ParkPark
- Garden PlacePark
- Passchendaele ParkPark
Data sources & freshness
- Parks & reserves — State government + ABS LGA boundaries · current · Updated
Green cover
- Parks & woodland (OSM)
- 8
- Parks (OSM)
- 6
OpenStreetMap parks and natural woodland features mapped within the suburb boundary.
Contributes to desirability score · Environment (10%)
Parks and green cover (OpenStreetMap)
Data sources & freshness
- OpenStreetMap green cover — OpenStreetMap contributors · current · Updated
Health access
- Nearest hospital
- Tomaree Community Hospital (1.6 km)
- Nearest hospital type
- Hospital
- Nearest hospital emergency
- Emergency department
Contributes to desirability score · Accessibility (15%)
Hospitals and GP clinics
Data sources & freshness
- Hospitals & clinics — OpenStreetMap + state health datasets · current · Updated
NDIS participation
- NDIS participants (31 March 2026)
- 49
- Participants per 1,000 residents
- 26.7
Active NDIS participants allocated from NDIA Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2, ASGS 2016) counts to this suburb boundary. Not an official suburb-level NDIS figure · as at 31 March 2026.
For NDIS spend and service-demand exploration by SA2 or postcode, see the Care Sector Demand Map.
Data sources & freshness
- NDIS participants by SA2 — National Disability Insurance Agency · 2026-Q1 · Updated · Quarterly SA2 counts allocated to suburb boundaries
Weather
Typical conditions by season for suburbs in the same ~44 km climate area. Rainfall totals are summed from monthly WorldClim layers; rainy-day counts are approximate.
Summer (Dec–Feb)
- Usual max / min
- 27° / 18°
- Rainfall
- 295 mm · ~37 rainy days
Autumn (Mar–May)
- Usual max / min
- 23° / 14°
- Rainfall
- 366 mm · ~46 rainy days
Winter (Jun–Aug)
- Usual max / min
- 18° / 8°
- Rainfall
- 272 mm · ~34 rainy days
Spring (Sep–Nov)
- Usual max / min
- 23° / 13°
- Rainfall
- 230 mm · ~29 rainy days
Contributes to desirability score · Lifestyle (15%)
Temperature and humidity comfort
Data sources & freshness
- Seasonal climate normals — WorldClim 2.1 · Updated
Future & Planning
Planning & development
Development applications from NSW Planning Portal.
2026· 18 proposals
August 2026
- Dwelling house; Erection of a new structure52 RIGNEY STREET SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
June 2026
- Demolition; Dwelling house; Cabanas, cubby houses, ferneries, garden sheds, gazebos and greenhouses52 RIGNEY STREET SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
- Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Outdoor dining - registered club43 SHOAL BAY ROAD SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
- Dwelling house; Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Residential Accommodation21 HORACE STREET SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
- Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Erection of a new structure; Balcony, deck, patio, terrace or verandah; Carport; Earthworks, retaining walls and structural support; Swimming pool35 OCEAN BEACH ROAD SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
- Erection of a new structure; Swimming pool8 VERONA ROAD SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
- Subdivision; Erection of a new structure; Dual occupancy (attached)6 ESSENDENE ROAD SHOAL BAY 2315Under Assessment
May 2026
- Demolition; Subdivision; Erection of a new structure; Dual occupancy (attached)7 GOVERNMENT ROAD SHOAL BAY 2315Under Assessment
- Erection of a new structure; Swimming pool52 RIGNEY STREET SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
- Demolition; Multi-dwelling housing; Subdivision; Erection of a new structure10 SHOAL BAY AVENUE SHOAL BAY 2315Additional Information Requested
- Secondary dwelling; Erection of a new structure57 TOMAREE ROAD SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
- Dwelling house; Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure18 LEONARD AVENUE SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
April 2026
- Subdivision14 ESSENDENE ROAD SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
March 2026
- Subdivision; Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Erection of a new structure; Dual occupancy (detached); Balcony, deck, patio, terrace or verandah; Driveways and hard stand spaces; Earthworks, retaining walls and structural support; Garage, carport or carparking space; Minor building alterations (internal); Minor building alterations (external)26 HORACE STREET SHOAL BAY 2315Under Assessment
- Erection of a new structure; Swimming pool66A TOMAREE ROAD SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
- Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Landscaping structures; Swimming pool46 HORACE STREET SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
February 2026
- Erection of a new structure; Portable swimming pools and spas and child-resistant barriers72 HORACE STREET SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
- Demolition63 RONALD AVENUE SHOAL BAY 2315Under Assessment
2025· 23 proposals
December 2025
- Erection of a new structure; Earthworks, retaining walls and structural support61 HORACE STREET SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
- Erection of a new structure; Portable swimming pools and spas and child-resistant barriers72 HORACE STREET SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
November 2025
- Dwelling house; Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure87 TOMAREE ROAD SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
- Residential flat building; Erection of a new structure; Residential Accommodation9 SHOAL BAY ROAD SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
- Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Erection of a new structure; Dual occupancy (detached); Swimming pool126 TOMAREE ROAD SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
September 2025
- Dwelling house; Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Swimming pool66 HORACE STREET SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
- Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Carport; Minor building alterations (external)15 SHOAL BAY AVENUE SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
- Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Outdoor dining - registered club43 SHOAL BAY ROAD SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
August 2025
- Shed; Erection of a new structure5 OCEAN BEACH ROAD SHOAL BAY 2315Withdrawn
- Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Balcony, deck, patio, terrace or verandah66 GOVERNMENT ROAD SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
July 2025
- Shed; Erection of a new structure; Portable swimming pools and spas and child-resistant barriers; Supporting Development3 LEONARD AVENUE SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
- Secondary dwelling; Demolition; Erection of a new structure49 TOMAREE ROAD SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
- Shed; Erection of a new structure72 HORACE STREET SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
May 2025
- Dwelling house; Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure52 GOVERNMENT ROAD SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
- Secondary dwelling; Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure54 HORACE STREET SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
- Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Erection of a new structure; Balcony, deck, patio, terrace or verandah (screened enclosures); Carport; Minor building alterations (internal); Minor building alterations (external)37 GOVERNMENT ROAD SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
- Dual occupancy; Demolition; Erection of a new structure; Dual occupancy (attached)27 RIGNEY STREET SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
April 2025
- Dwelling house; Erection of a new structure106 RIGNEY STREET SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
March 2025
- Commercial development; Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure35-45 Shoal Bay Road Shoal Bay NSW 2315Determined
February 2025
- Erection of a new structure; Swimming pool84 GOVERNMENT ROAD SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
- Commercial development; Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure35-45 Shoal Bay Road Shoal Bay NSW 2315Determined
- Dwelling house; Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure5 HORACE STREET SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
- Residential flat building; Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure101 6 BULLECOURT STREET SHOAL BAY 2315Determined
Contributes to desirability score · Future Growth (7%)
Development and planning activity
Data sources & freshness
- Online DA development application register — NSW Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure · 2026 · Updated · Daily feed (from Oct 2018)
Heritage
2 heritage places
- Tomaree Head Fortifications2 Shoal Bay Road Shoal BaySHR
- Tomaree Holiday LodgeShoalhaven Road, Shoal BaySHR
Data sources & freshness
- State heritage register — State heritage authority · current · Updated
Hazards
- Bushfire planning zone
- No overlay at centroid
Bushfire overlay checked at suburb centroid via NSW bush fire prone land mapping.
Contributes to desirability score · Safety (18%)
Bushfire hazard overlays
Data sources & freshness
- Hazard planning overlays — State government hazard layers · current · Updated
Politics & representation
- Federal electorate
- Paterson
- Member of Parliament
- Meryl SWANSON (Australian Labor Party)
- Results from
- 2025 federal election
- Electorate enrolment (2025)
- 127,926
- Turnout (2025)
- 92.8%
- Swing since 2022 (2025)
- +4.3 pp toward Labor
Two-party preferred (2025)
Coalition 43.1%Labor 56.9%
Estimated suburb voting profile
Estimated from 8 nearby ordinary polling places (up to 10.3 km away).
Coalition 44.3%Labor 55.7%
1.2 percentage points more Coalition-leaning than the electorate
Estimated swing since 2022: +5.8 pp toward Labor
Nearest polling places
- Shoal BayLabor 56.3% · Coalition 43.7% TPP (2025)0.5 km away
- Nelson Bay CentralLabor 53.3% · Coalition 46.7% TPP (2025)1.9 km away
- Nelson BayLabor 46.3% · Coalition 53.7% TPP (2025)3.2 km away
- CorletteLabor 45.9% · Coalition 54.1% TPP (2025)5.8 km away
- SalamanderLabor 54.3% · Coalition 45.7% TPP (2025)5.9 km away
Federal electorate from AEC federal division boundaries (2025 redistribution). Division-level results are official AEC figures from the latest general election, with by-election updates where applicable. The estimated suburb profile blends up to eight nearest ordinary polling booths in the same electorate using inverse-distance weighting from the suburb centroid — an approximation, not official AEC data. Nearest polling places are shown for reference.
Data sources & freshness
- Federal election results — Australian Electoral Commission · Updated · 2025 election with by-election overlays
Socio-economic
- IRSAD decile (2021)
- 3/10
- IRSD decile (2021)
- 3/10
ABS Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA), 2021 release — the latest available, derived from the 2021 Census. Deciles rank suburbs nationally from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).
What do IRSAD and IRSD measure?
IRSAD — Index of Relative Socio-economic Advantage and Disadvantage. Combines indicators of advantage (e.g. high income, skilled occupations) and disadvantage. Higher decile = more advantaged relative to other Australian areas.
IRSD — Index of Relative Socio-economic Disadvantage. Focuses on disadvantage only (e.g. low income, unemployment, limited education). Higher decile = less disadvantage nationally.
A new SEIFA edition typically follows each census; the ABS has not announced a release date beyond 2021.
Contributes to desirability score · Community (5%)
Socio-economic advantage (IRSAD decile)
Data sources & freshness
- SEIFA 2021 (IRSAD / IRSD) — Australian Bureau of Statistics · Updated
Compare with
Similar suburbs to weigh up side by side — scores, safety, schools, and lifestyle.
More in Port Stephens Council
Other suburbs in the same local government area.
Comparable suburbs
Similar population and socio-economic profile in other parts of New South Wales.