Median house price
$876k
+3.1% change
NSW · Lake Macquarie Council
Carey Bay, 2283
Est. population · Jun 2025
828
Growth (1 yr)
0.0%
Growth (5 yr)
+1.2%
Median age
54
Median income
$1,266/wk
Employment rate
44.3%
Median house price · October to December 2025
$876,000
Languages at home
4.7%non-English
Most common: Cantonese, Afrikaans
2021 Census · usual residence
Desirability score
- Excellent transport
- Education hub
- High desirability
Suburb profile
Carey Bay offers a slower smaller community life in Lake Macquarie Council, with open surrounds and a close-knit community feel. The capital is not on the doorstep: Sydney is a proper journey, while nearby towns cover more day-to-day needs. Retirees and empty-nesters are well represented here.
Everyday cafés are limited locally, with the wider metro area covering the bigger food and entertainment trips. There is enough green space nearby for walks, picnics and after-school play. Day-to-day life is more car-oriented here, with buses covering longer trips across the wider area.
Housing is expensive relative to much of the state. Occasional new builds add variety while most of the suburb keeps its established look.
The desirability picture is below average, weighed down by softer safety relative to similar metro suburbs. Limited access to some essential local services also trimmed the result.
At a glance
Carey Bay snapshot
A quick read of housing, growth, livability, and risk
Median rent
$650/wk
Population (ERP)
828
0.0% annual growth
Dwelling vacancy
7.3%
Census unoccupied dwellings
Livability profile
Desirability pillars vs the peer median (50th percentile)
How it compares
Relative standing using percentiles, ranks, and national deciles
Desirability
#110
among Metro Sydney · Mature
Safety
59th
percentile in state (higher = safer)
Pop. growth
14th
percentile in NSW
Advantage (IRSAD)
7/10
national SEIFA decile
School ICSEA
74th
percentile among schools with ICSEA
Population growth
Recent ERP change over 1 and 5 years
Housing mix
Dwelling types from the 2021 Census
Risks & flags
Quick scan — open a section below for full context
Living here
Desirability
Ranks & confidence
- Desirability score
- 32.9/100 — Below average
- National rank
- 5065th in Australia
- State rank
- 1620th in NSW
- Peer rank
- #110 among Metro Sydney · Mature suburbs
- Cohort rank
- #800 among Metro Sydney suburbs
- Data confidence
- 89%
Data sources & freshness
- Suburb Guide desirability index — Suburb Guide (derived) · current · Updated
Housing
- Houses (January to March 2026)
- $650
- Rental bonds lodged (January to March 2026)
- 89
- Median house price (October to December 2025)
- $876,000
- Median price change
- +3.1%
Median weekly rent from NSW DCJ rent tables. Figures can be unreliable where few bonds were lodged in the quarter.
Contributes to desirability score · Housing (15%) · Future Growth (7%)
Median price, rental yield and vacancy Recent price momentum
Data sources & freshness
- DCJ rent and sales tables — NSW Department of Communities and Justice · January to March 2026; October to December 2025 · Updated · Quarterly releases
Population
Estimated resident population
828(June 2025)
0.0% annual · +1.2% over 5 years · 14th percentile in NSW
Growth figures & methodology
- Annual growth
- 0.0%
- 5-year growth
- +1.2%
- Change in 1 year
- 0
- Change in 5 years
- +10
- Growth rank in NSW
- 14th percentile
ABS Estimated Resident Population allocated to this suburb from SA2-level data. Not an official ABS suburb count.
Methodology
Figures are allocated from ABS Estimated Resident Population at Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2), using 2021 Census share within overlapping SA2 regions. Where Census data is unavailable, area overlap is used instead.
The dashed chart line is a simple growth-trend estimate to June 2030 (~850), extrapolated at +0.1% average annual growth since 2011. It is illustrative only — not an official ABS forecast.
2021 Census figures
2021 Census
- Population
- 865
- Median age
- 54
- Median household income / week
- $1,266
- Dwelling vacancy
- 7.3%
- Unoccupied private dwellings
- 31 of 425
- Median monthly mortgage
- $1,950
- Employment rate
- 44.3%
- Dwelling mix (houses / semi / flats)
- 266 / 62 / 39 (+ 26 other)
Contributes to desirability score · Community (5%)
Employment, household income and age diversity (2021 Census)
Data sources & freshness
- 2021 Census — General Community Profile — Australian Bureau of Statistics · Updated
The 2026 Census runs in August 2026; suburb-level updates are expected from mid-2027.
- Estimated Resident Population — Australian Bureau of Statistics · 2025 · Updated · SA2 ERP allocated to suburb boundaries
Community & culture
No 2021 Census cultural diversity data for this suburb yet.
Data sources & freshness
- 2021 Census — General Community Profile — Australian Bureau of Statistics · Updated
The 2026 Census runs in August 2026; suburb-level updates are expected from mid-2027.
Crime & safety
Reported offences decreased compared with the previous period.
Offence counts & rates
- Total offences (Jan 2025 to Dec 2025)
- 67
- Against the person
- 19
- Against property
- 17
- Rate per 1,000 residents
- 80.9
- Person-crime prevalence
- About 1 in 46 residents
- State safety percentile
- 59.3th (lower crime is better)
- Decrease (daily rate)
- -1.2%
Most common offence types
- Breach Bail Conditions387
- Domestic Violence Related Assault156
- Intimidation, Stalking And Harassment194
- Malicious Damage To Property138
- Transport Regulatory Offences278
Contributes to desirability score · Safety (18%)
Crime rate and year-on-year trend
Data sources & freshness
- BOCSAR postcode crime statistics — NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research · Jan 2024 to Dec 2024 → Jan 2025 to Dec 2025; Jan 2025 to Dec 2025 · Updated · Rolling 12-month windows
Family & Lifestyle
Schools & preschools
- Schools within 2 km
- 1
- Median school ICSEA
- 1,065
- Median ICSEA percentile
- 74th
School list
- Coal Point Public SchoolPrimary · Government · ICSEA 1065 · 74th percentile · LBOTE 7% · 245 students · Top SEA quarter 26% · 1.6 km awayView on My School →
Contributes to desirability score · Education (15%)
School and preschool counts, median school ICSEA
Data sources & freshness
- ACARA school locations — Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority · 2025 · Updated · Annual release
- School ICSEA scores — Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority · 2025 · Updated · Annual release
Public transport
15 public transport stops in this suburb
- Ambrose St After Excelsior Pde
- Ambrose St Before Excelsior Pde
- Excelsior Pde At Exeter St
- Excelsior Pde At Laycock St
- Exeter St After Excelsior Pde
Contributes to desirability score · Accessibility (15%)
Public transport stop coverage
Data sources & freshness
- Timetables Complete GTFS stops (© Transport for NSW, CC BY 4.0) — Transport for NSW — Open Data Hub · current · Updated · Nightly GTFS feed
Amenities
6 nearby amenities within ~1.5 km
Local character & venue list
Local character
- Limited walkable amenities nearby
- Great for outdoor family life — 2 parks mapped in suburb
- Reasonable bus and transport access — 15 public transport stops
- Walkability proxy
- 23/100
- Cafés per 1,000 residents
- 0
- Food & drink per 1,000 residents
- 0
- Parks per 1,000 residents
- 2.31
Sport & outdoors(2)
- Park (2)
Transport(4)
4 bus stops
Names and addresses from OpenStreetMap. Unnamed venues show as their type (e.g. Cafe). Transport stops are summarised by type rather than listed individually.
Contributes to desirability score · Lifestyle (15%)
Food, shopping, recreation and sport (OpenStreetMap)
Data sources & freshness
- Local amenity insights — Suburb Guide (derived) · current · Updated
- OpenStreetMap amenities — OpenStreetMap contributors · current · Updated
Green cover
- Parks & woodland (OSM)
- 6
- Parks (OSM)
- 2
OpenStreetMap parks and natural woodland features mapped within the suburb boundary.
Contributes to desirability score · Environment (10%)
Parks and green cover (OpenStreetMap)
Data sources & freshness
- OpenStreetMap green cover — OpenStreetMap contributors · current · Updated
Health access
- Nearest hospital
- Toronto Private Hospital (1.7 km)
- Nearest hospital type
- Hospital
- Nearest hospital emergency
- Emergency department
Contributes to desirability score · Accessibility (15%)
Hospitals and GP clinics
Data sources & freshness
- Hospitals & clinics — OpenStreetMap + state health datasets · current · Updated
NDIS participation
- NDIS participants (31 March 2026)
- 35
- Participants per 1,000 residents
- 42.3
Active NDIS participants allocated from NDIA Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2, ASGS 2016) counts to this suburb boundary. Not an official suburb-level NDIS figure · as at 31 March 2026.
For NDIS spend and service-demand exploration by SA2 or postcode, see the Care Sector Demand Map.
Data sources & freshness
- NDIS participants by SA2 — National Disability Insurance Agency · 2026-Q1 · Updated · Quarterly SA2 counts allocated to suburb boundaries
Weather
Typical conditions by season for suburbs in the same ~44 km climate area. Rainfall totals are summed from monthly WorldClim layers; rainy-day counts are approximate.
Summer (Dec–Feb)
- Usual max / min
- 27° / 18°
- Rainfall
- 295 mm · ~37 rainy days
Autumn (Mar–May)
- Usual max / min
- 23° / 14°
- Rainfall
- 366 mm · ~46 rainy days
Winter (Jun–Aug)
- Usual max / min
- 18° / 8°
- Rainfall
- 272 mm · ~34 rainy days
Spring (Sep–Nov)
- Usual max / min
- 23° / 13°
- Rainfall
- 230 mm · ~29 rainy days
Contributes to desirability score · Lifestyle (15%)
Temperature and humidity comfort
Data sources & freshness
- Seasonal climate normals — WorldClim 2.1 · Updated
Future & Planning
Planning & development
Development applications from NSW Planning Portal.
2026· 10 proposals
August 2026
- Dwelling house; Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure1 LAYCOCK STREET CAREY BAY 2283Under Assessment
July 2026
- Secondary dwelling; Erection of a new structure2 WYERA CRESCENT CAREY BAY 2283Determined
- Demolition; Dwelling house; Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Garage, carport or carparking space32 AMBROSE STREET CAREY BAY 2283Additional Information Requested
- Shed; Erection of a new structure35 JABIRU STREET CAREY BAY 2283Determined
June 2026
- Change of use of land or a building or the classification of a building under the Building Code of Australia; Recreation facility (indoor)5 17 LAYCOCK STREET CAREY BAY 2283Determined
May 2026
- Erection of a new structure; Carport36 HAMPTON STREET CAREY BAY 2283Determined
April 2026
- Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Jetty7 EXCELSIOR PARADE CAREY BAY 2283Determined
March 2026
- Erection of a new structure; Swimming pool93 EXCELSIOR PARADE CAREY BAY 2283Determined
- Shed; Subdivision; Erection of a new structure; Supporting Development77 EXCELSIOR PARADE CAREY BAY 2283Additional Information Requested
January 2026
- Dwelling house; Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure1 LAYCOCK STREET CAREY BAY 2283Determined
2025· 7 proposals
December 2025
- Dwelling house; Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure24 EXCELSIOR PARADE CAREY BAY 2283Determined
- Dwelling house; Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Erection of a new structure13 THE QUARTERDECK CAREY BAY 2283Determined
November 2025
- Dwelling house; Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure5 EXCELSIOR PARADE CAREY BAY 2283Determined
October 2025
- Demolition; Shed; Dwelling house; Erection of a new structure13 EXCELSIOR PARADE CAREY BAY 2283Determined
June 2025
- Dwelling house; Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure3 AMBROSE STREET CAREY BAY 2283Determined
May 2025
- Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Balcony, deck, patio, terrace or verandah (screened enclosures)8 AMELIA STREET CAREY BAY 2283Determined
March 2025
- Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Jetty7 EXCELSIOR PARADE CAREY BAY 2283Determined
2024· 7 proposals
November 2024
- Demolition; Dwelling house; Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure; Erection of a new structure44 EXCELSIOR PARADE CAREY BAY 2283Determined
- Dwelling house; Erection of a new structure37 EXCELSIOR PARADE CAREY BAY 2283Determined
October 2024
- Secondary dwelling; Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure7 EXCELSIOR PARADE CAREY BAY 2283Determined
August 2024
- Demolition; Shed; Dwelling house; Erection of a new structure13 EXCELSIOR PARADE CAREY BAY 2283Determined
- Dwelling house; Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure3 LAYCOCK STREET CAREY BAY 2283Determined
- Dwelling house; Erection of a new structure; Earthworks, retaining walls and structural support35 JABIRU STREET CAREY BAY 2283Determined
March 2024
- Dwelling house; Erection of a new structure27 EXCELSIOR PARADE CAREY BAY 2283Determined
2023· 7 proposals
October 2023
- Dwelling house; Erection of a new structure71 EXCELSIOR PARADE CAREY BAY 2283Determined
September 2023
- Balconies, decks, patios, terraces or verandahs6 EXETER STREET CAREY BAY 2283Determined
- Dual occupancy; Pools / decks / fencing; Balconies, decks, patios, terraces or verandahs; Demolition; Subdivision of land; Earthworks / change in levels37 JABIRU STREET CAREY BAY 2283Determined
July 2023
- Dwelling; Pools / decks / fencing; Balconies, decks, patios, terraces or verandahs; Demolition; Retaining walls, protection of trees29 EXCELSIOR PARADE CAREY BAY 2283Determined
June 2023
- Balconies, decks, patios, terraces or verandahs; Alterations and additions to residential development10 AMELIA STREET CAREY BAY 2283Determined
May 2023
- Dwelling; Pools / decks / fencing; Balconies, decks, patios, terraces or verandahs; Demolition99 EXCELSIOR PARADE CAREY BAY 2283Determined
April 2023
- Demolition73 EXCELSIOR PARADE CAREY BAY 2283Withdrawn
2022· 14 proposals
December 2022
- Dwelling73 EXCELSIOR PARADE CAREY BAY 2283Determined
November 2022
- Alterations and additions to residential development83 Excelsior Parade, CAREY BAY NSW 2283Determined
October 2022
- Alterations and additions to residential development34 AMBROSE STREET CAREY BAY 2283Determined
September 2022
- Alterations and additions to residential development7 EXCELSIOR PARADE CAREY BAY 2283Determined
August 2022
- Dwelling; Garages, carports and car parking spaces35 JABIRU STREET CAREY BAY 2283Determined
June 2022
- Alterations and additions to residential development8 AMBROSE STREET CAREY BAY 2283Determined
- Alterations and additions to commercial development; Centre based childcare1 17 LAYCOCK STREET CAREY BAY 2283Withdrawn
April 2022
- Dwelling30 EXCELSIOR PARADE CAREY BAY 2283Determined
- Balconies, decks, patios, terraces or verandahs; Alterations and additions to residential development25 EXCELSIOR PARADE CAREY BAY 2283Determined
- Garages, carports and car parking spaces7 EXCELSIOR PARADE CAREY BAY 2283Determined
March 2022
- Alterations and additions to residential development83 Excelsior Parade, CAREY BAY NSW 2283Determined
- Pools / decks / fencing; Balconies, decks, patios, terraces or verandahs; Alterations and additions to residential development50 AMELIA STREET CAREY BAY 2283Determined
February 2022
- Dwelling; Balconies, decks, patios, terraces or verandahs; Alterations and additions to residential development; Garages, carports and car parking spaces27 AMBROSE STREET CAREY BAY 2283Determined
- Centre based childcare1 17 LAYCOCK STREET CAREY BAY 2283Determined
Contributes to desirability score · Future Growth (7%)
Development and planning activity
Data sources & freshness
- Online DA development application register — NSW Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure · 2026 · Updated · Daily feed (from Oct 2018)
Hazards
- Bushfire planning zone
- No overlay at centroid
Bushfire overlay checked at suburb centroid via NSW bush fire prone land mapping.
Contributes to desirability score · Safety (18%)
Bushfire hazard overlays
Data sources & freshness
- Hazard planning overlays — State government hazard layers · current · Updated
Politics & representation
- Federal electorate
- Hunter
- Member of Parliament
- Dan REPACHOLI (Australian Labor Party)
- Results from
- 2025 federal election
- Electorate enrolment (2025)
- 132,184
- Turnout (2025)
- 91.9%
- Swing since 2022 (2025)
- +4.7 pp toward Labor
Two-party preferred (2025)
Coalition 40.5%Labor 59.5%
Estimated suburb voting profile
Estimated from 8 nearby ordinary polling places (up to 4.5 km away).
Coalition 40.9%Labor 59.1%
0.4 percentage points more Coalition-leaning than the electorate
Estimated swing since 2022: +6.9 pp toward Labor
Nearest polling places
- Kilaben BayLabor 57.3% · Coalition 42.7% TPP (2025)1.0 km away
- Coal PointLabor 54.2% · Coalition 45.8% TPP (2025)1.7 km away
- TorontoLabor 65.9% · Coalition 34.1% TPP (2025)2.2 km away
- RathminesLabor 59.0% · Coalition 41.0% TPP (2025)2.3 km away
- BirabanLabor 72.3% · Coalition 27.7% TPP (2025)3.4 km away
Federal electorate from AEC federal division boundaries (2025 redistribution). Division-level results are official AEC figures from the latest general election, with by-election updates where applicable. The estimated suburb profile blends up to eight nearest ordinary polling booths in the same electorate using inverse-distance weighting from the suburb centroid — an approximation, not official AEC data. Nearest polling places are shown for reference.
Data sources & freshness
- Federal election results — Australian Electoral Commission · Updated · 2025 election with by-election overlays
Socio-economic
- IRSAD decile (2021)
- 7/10
- IRSD decile (2021)
- 5/10
ABS Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA), 2021 release — the latest available, derived from the 2021 Census. Deciles rank suburbs nationally from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).
What do IRSAD and IRSD measure?
IRSAD — Index of Relative Socio-economic Advantage and Disadvantage. Combines indicators of advantage (e.g. high income, skilled occupations) and disadvantage. Higher decile = more advantaged relative to other Australian areas.
IRSD — Index of Relative Socio-economic Disadvantage. Focuses on disadvantage only (e.g. low income, unemployment, limited education). Higher decile = less disadvantage nationally.
A new SEIFA edition typically follows each census; the ABS has not announced a release date beyond 2021.
Contributes to desirability score · Community (5%)
Socio-economic advantage (IRSAD decile)
Data sources & freshness
- SEIFA 2021 (IRSAD / IRSD) — Australian Bureau of Statistics · Updated
Compare with
Similar suburbs to weigh up side by side — scores, safety, schools, and lifestyle.
More in Lake Macquarie Council
Other suburbs in the same local government area.
Comparable suburbs
Similar population and socio-economic profile in other parts of New South Wales.